Space Weather: Probability and Severity of Impacts on Ground

Space weather, the study of the effects of solar activity on both space and ground infrastructure, has brought to light the potential risks posed to technological systems such as power grids, telecommunications, satellites, and space operations. It is estimated that a rare but severe event, akin to the Carrington event, could cost the US alone more than 1000-2000 billion euros. In addition to these extreme events, a range of less severe phenomena related to space weather can still have significant impacts, potentially costing insurers several million euros and causing social disruption.

To address these risks, a joint research initiative is being launched between the Grenoble University Space Center, represented by Mathieu Barthelemy and Elisa Robert, and AXA XL's space industry division, represented by Denis Bousquet. This collaborative effort aims to investigate the various risks associated with space weather, assess their likelihood of occurrence (Probability) and their potential impact (Severity) on different types of infrastructure. The research will also consider geolocation as a variable input for Probability/Severity analysis.

The project will specifically focus on Ground Induced Current (GIC) risks and seek to evaluate critical risks within this context. It will also delve into the economic and social impacts of these risks, with the goal of producing informative materials and educational tools for relevant stakeholders and the wider society. Ultimately, the research outcomes will provide valuable guidance to the insurance sector for better preparation and response to space weather-related risks.