Building Representative Simulations of Winter Windstorms in Europe

The project carried out at the Met Office in the United Kingdom, focused on studying European winter windstorms, which have significant societal and economic impacts. It built upon past and current research efforts that have highlighted the clustering of consecutive storms and their impact on cumulative annual losses. It aimed to improve the understanding of the frequency and intensity of these extreme events by generating a set of stochastic events using state-of-the-art dynamical and statistical methods. 

The scientific objectives of the research project included investigating the most appropriate spatial resolution to study windstorms, determining methods for simulating wind gusts from averaged wind speed, and validating and evaluating the stochastic windstorm event set. The project also explored the impact of climate change on windstorm frequency and severity under current climate conditions. 

Carried out in collaboration with AXA's Actuarial team, it has helped them to better understand and optimize reinsurance structures and estimate loss probabilities for different return periods. The project aimed to provide a robust understanding of windstorm risks, contributing to enhanced risk management and better preparation for extreme weather events. The outcomes of this research will continue to have a significant impact on society by improving the ability to assess and mitigate the potential damage caused by European winter windstorms, ultimately leading to better protection for communities and businesses against these natural disasters.