Quantifying the causes and consequences of climate change to predict species vulnerability: a framework to inform decision-making

Species today are going extinct at a rate nearly 1,000 times higher than usual, due in no small part to climate change. The United Nations Decade of Biodiversity has highlighted both the ethical and economic reasons why decision makers must take action. Cindy Canale is seeking a deep understanding of populations’ responses to climate change, to provide the accurate predictive tools that conservation efforts need.
When changes in the environment cause changes in a population, something must be happening on the level of its individual members. Dr. Canale plans to identify these individual-scale mechanisms underlying the climate/population relationship. Combining advanced lab techniques with 24 years of data on her specific subject of study, the Alpine marmot, she will examine alterations on multiple scales, from genes to populations. Few projects have integrated as many fundamental elements. Using the results observed over recent decades, she aims to predict population abundance in response to likely climate change scenarios and the corresponding risk of extinction. Dr. Canale’s tools promise to make informed conservation action possible.